Tensions are escalating on Yemen’s border as 20,000 Saudi-backed forces amass, signaling a potential showdown with the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC). But here’s where it gets controversial: the STC, backed by the United Arab Emirates, is refusing to retreat from its recent territorial gains in the oil-rich governorate of Hadramaut, instead pushing for Yemen’s division into two states—a demand that has sparked fierce debate. Is this a legitimate bid for autonomy or a dangerous gamble that could reignite full-scale war?
The STC’s defiance has put it on a collision course with Saudi Arabia, which has warned of potential airstrikes against key STC positions. Meanwhile, well-funded troops, primarily from the Saudi-backed National Shield militia, are gathering near the Saudi border in areas like al-Wadeeah and al-Abr. The UAE’s continued support for the STC raises the specter of proxy clashes between forces loyal to Saudi Arabia and the UAE—a scenario that could further destabilize the region.
And this is the part most people miss: UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that a resumption of full-scale fighting in Yemen could have devastating consequences across the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Horn of Africa. He emphasized that unilateral actions will only deepen divisions and increase the risk of escalation. “Yemen’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be preserved,” he urged, highlighting the plight of nearly 5 million Yemenis displaced by the ongoing civil war between the Houthis in the north and the fracturing forces in the south.
During talks in Aden last Friday, the STC flatly rejected Saudi demands to withdraw its forces, which have expanded into Hadramaut, al-Mahra, and Abyan. This sudden advance has blindsided Riyadh, which had long been the dominant power in Yemen. While the international community, including the UK, largely supports a unified Yemen, the STC argues that an independent south could serve as a bulwark against extremism, protecting Red Sea shipping lanes from Houthi and al-Qaida threats. However, not all southern groups support division, leaving the STC’s ability to form a coherent government in question.
Farea al-Muslimi, a Middle East researcher at Chatham House, notes that Saudi Arabia’s “strategic patience” may be wearing thin. “Yemen is a poor country with too many young fighters and too many proxies,” he warns. “Both sides are putting all their cards on the table.” While the situation may not surprise Yemen observers, the optics are deeply humiliating for Saudi Arabia, as the conflict unfolds on its borders, not the UAE’s.
With control over Hadramaut and al-Mahra, the STC now claims dominion over the territory of the former southern state of Yemen. Hadramaut alone spans 36% of Yemen’s land, holds its largest oil reserves, and includes vital ports like Mukalla and al-Shihr. However, the Islah party, Yemen’s largest political party and a staunch opponent of southern secession, believes the tide may soon turn against the STC. Abdulrazak al-Hijri, Islah’s acting secretary general, warns that calls for the STC’s withdrawal from Hadramaut are growing, with local leaders and tribes demanding an end to the chaos caused by irregular forces.
Hijri also highlights widespread reports of STC human rights abuses, including property theft and mass arrests. “Saudi Arabia is determined to force these troops to withdraw,” he says. “The legitimate government is fragmenting, and the Houthis stand to gain the most from these divisions.” Hijri accuses the Houthis of viewing Yemenis as “slaves rather than people,” underscoring the stakes of the conflict.
Islah denies UAE claims of ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, positioning itself as a civilian party. Since 2022, the STC has uneasily shared power in a Saudi-organized presidential council alongside groups like Islah, but recent developments threaten to unravel this fragile arrangement.
What do you think? Is the STC’s push for an independent south a legitimate aspiration or a reckless move that risks further bloodshed? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
